Fate to be written in El Clásico

Real Madrid once again proved that even an easy match can turn into a nerve-wracking battle. In their most recent La Liga fixture at the Santiago Bernabéu, Carlo Ancelotti’s men faced Celta Vigo. By the 48th minute, Kylian Mbappé and Arda Güler had put Real 3-0 ahead. But soon after, in the span of just seven minutes, Celta Vigo clawed their way back into the match, bringing the score to 3-2 and creating multiple chances to level the game. Ultimately, those chances remained unfulfilled, and when the final whistle blew, the entire Real Madrid camp could finally breathe a sigh of relief.

And that sigh was not just metaphorical—it was very real. Because La Liga now stands as Real Madrid’s only hope for silverware this season. Though they trail their fierce rivals Barcelona by four points, a dramatic twist in the final stretch could yet bring the title to Madrid. And that twist could begin with none other than El Clásico. On May 11, Real Madrid and Barcelona will face off in the last Clásico of the season. After 34 matches, Barça sit atop the table with 79 points, while Real are just behind with 75. Heading into this all-important clash, the two sides find themselves on divergent paths.

Barcelona, already Copa del Rey champions, have the chance to complete a domestic double with the league title. A win in El Clásico would stretch their lead to seven points, a gap that would be nearly impossible to close in the final three games. On the other hand, if Real Madrid win, the gap would narrow to a single point—setting up a nail-biting finish to the season.

Should Barcelona manage to extinguish Real’s comeback hopes, reclaiming the La Liga crown would be a matter of time. With Champions League hopes still alive, the Catalan side could even be dreaming of a historic treble. In contrast, Real Madrid, having already been knocked out of the Champions League by Arsenal and defeated by Barcelona in the Copa del Rey final, risk ending the season empty-handed if they also fail to capture the league title.

Barcelona began the season smoothly but stumbled not long after. Following a run of seven straight wins, inconsistency set in. Real Madrid seized the opportunity to climb to the top of the table, only to falter themselves by dropping points regularly, complicating their title defense. Recently, Barcelona have looked nearly unstoppable. In their last five La Liga matches, they’ve come from behind to win every single time. Across all competitions, they've overturned deficits to win in eight matches, including one each in the Spanish Super Cup, the Copa del Rey final, and the Champions League.

Ahead of El Clásico, Barcelona are considered favorites—and for good reason. They’ve won all three of this season’s previous meetings with Real: 4-0 in the first La Liga leg, 5-2 in the Spanish Super Cup, and 3-2 in the Copa del Rey final. The aggregate score across those matches stands at 12-4 in Barça’s favor. Given that record, many would confidently place their bets on Barcelona. But one must remember—Real Madrid, with nothing left to lose, will approach the match like a hungry beast. Unlike Barcelona, they don’t have a Champions League campaign to manage, which allows them to throw everything into this battle. From that perspective, we cannot rule out the possibility of something dramatic.

Statistically, the current season favors Barcelona. They’ve won the most matches (25), scored the most goals (91), and have the highest goal difference (58) in the league. Individually, their players also lead in key metrics. Robert Lewandowski is the top scorer with 25 goals, closely followed by Kylian Mbappé with 24. When combining goals and assists, both players are tied with 27. Lamin Yamal leads the assist charts with 12.

All signs point to Barcelona as favorites—but again, this is El Clásico. A fixture that regularly defies numbers and delivers the unexpected. If that happens once more, the La Liga title race could catch fire. Fans, too, would relish the drama and suspense. Whether it’s Real Madrid’s resurgence or Barcelona’s continued dominance, the upcoming El Clásico is set to be a title decider.

Mahbub Sarkar is a writer and sports journalist.