Why is Rohingya influx increasing instead of repatriation?

Although Myanmar had identified 180,000 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh as eligible for repatriation, the reality is quite the opposite — more Rohingyas are entering Bangladesh instead of returning home. Earlier this month, following a meeting in Thailand between Khalilur Rahman, the High Representative on Rohingya Affairs to the Chief Adviser of Bangladesh, and Myanmar’s Deputy Prime Minister U Than Swe, this repatriation plan was confirmed. However, over the past year, nearly 180,000 new Rohingyas have entered Bangladesh.

According to recent media reports, as of Saturday (27 April), some 113,000 Rohingyas from Myanmar’s Rakhine state have crossed into Bangladesh. Their fingerprints have already been collected through a joint effort by the Bangladeshi government and the UNHCR. However, the government has yet to permit iris-based biometric registration of these new arrivals.

To address the growing shelter needs, the UNHCR has sent a letter to Bangladesh, requesting accommodation for the new arrivals. This letter was reportedly sent last week to the Office of the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC). Officials have confirmed that these arrivals are part of a fresh influx, most of whom entered after May-June last year, and that new Rohingyas continue to enter daily.

With over 1.2 million Rohingyas currently living in camps in Teknaf and Ukhiya, Bangladesh is facing significant humanitarian, environmental, and security challenges. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts for their repatriation, the influx of new Rohingyas has intensified pressure on Bangladesh.

On 27 April, Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain informed journalists that Bangladesh had agreed in principle to allow a “humanitarian corridor” for delivering aid to conflict-torn Rakhine. Earlier this year, the UN warned of a possible famine in the region due to ongoing civil war. In response, the UN requested Bangladesh to open a corridor under specific conditions to deliver aid to civilians in Myanmar.

While allowing such a corridor is a humanitarian gesture, it raises concerns about further uncontrolled entry of Rohingyas into Bangladesh. Compounding the crisis is the declining level of international aid. Although the Chief Adviser previously expressed hope that Rohingyas would be able to celebrate Eid next year in their own homes, no concrete timeline or number of returnees has been confirmed.

If daily inflows of new Rohingyas continue, the question remains: does Bangladesh have the resources and capacity to bear this ever-increasing burden?

Bangladesh urgently needs specific, actionable steps toward repatriation, alongside stronger measures to prevent further unauthorized influx across the border.